Nepal To Suffer Economic Loss of Rs 450 billion From Covid-19: ADB
May 19, 2020 | Investopaper
Asian Development Bank (ADB) has projected that the most serious economic loss due to the corona virus may occur in Nepal. ADB estimates that the corona will cause an economic loss of 13.6 percent (Rs. 450.24 billion) of Nepal’s GDP, if the Corona epidemic lasts for 6 months. In terms of GDP, the economic loss in Nepal is the highest among the Asian countries.
ADB estimates that among the other South Asian countries, India will lose 6 percent of GDP, Bangladesh 6.6 percent, Pakistan 5.1 percent and Sri Lanka 6 percent. Asian Development Bank projects that South Korea and China will face an economic loss of 11.7 percent and 11.2 percent of their GDP respectively.
However, if the Corona is stopped within three months, then the damage could be reduced if governments took concrete policy initiatives. ADB estimates that the loss in Nepal would be 7.9 percent of the GDP, or Rs 254 billion, if the corona is stopped within three months of its inception. However, due to the recent rapid growth of the corona in Nepal and the onset of the lockdown period in the third month, the impact is unlikely to subside in three months. The full impact of Covid-19 will not be reflected in the economic growth of this fiscal year, its impact will be seen in the coming fiscal year as well.
Asian Development Bank had earlier estimated that 4.87 percent of Nepal’s economy, or about 180 billion rupees, would be damaged. Revising estimates made a month and a half ago on April 3, the ADB has released a new projection, which looks very scary. ADB figures are based on estimates of gross domestic product if there were no corona epidemics.and the economic loss due to the corona epidemic.
The Central Statistics Department , the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others had projected 6.5 percent economic growth in the current fiscal year without the corona infection. The IMF has projected that Nepal’s economic growth will be only 1 percent this fiscal year due to Corona’s influence. The Central Statistics Department had recently projected an economic growth rate of 2.28 percent.
