January 14, 2024 | Investopaper
The National Statistics Office (NSO) has forecasted a 3.2 percent growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) at the basic price during the first quarter of the fiscal year 2023/24. This projection was part of the publicly released quarterly GDP report, revealing a positive trend in economic indicators. Notably, the mining and quarrying sector is expected to see a substantial 15.8 percent increase in total value, while the construction sector is poised for an 11.4 percent surge. The accommodation and food service sector is also anticipated to experience significant growth, with a projected 11.7 percent expansion attributed to a rise in tourist arrivals.
The office estimates that the growth rate of the banking and insurance sector is 13.2 percent during the review period. It is said that there has been a positive impact in this sector due to the increase in deposits and loans, reduction in interbank interest rates, increasing insurance charges.
Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, key contributors to the economy, are estimated to grow at a more modest rate of 1.4 percent in the first quarter. This growth is fueled, in part, by increased rice production. Conversely, the wholesale and retail trade sector is predicted to witness a 1.2 percent decrease during the same period. The NSO highlights a nuanced economic landscape, with varying impacts across sectors. The report underscores the complexity of factors influencing economic performance, from tourism-driven growth in specific sectors to the challenges faced by wholesale and retail trade.
Despite the overall positive outlook, seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP at the basic price is expected to contract by 1.4 percent in the first quarter compared to the preceding fiscal year’s fourth quarter. The NSO identifies sector-specific dynamics, revealing that economic activities increased in 12 of the total 18 economic sectors during this period. However, six sectors experienced a decline. Notably, the water supply, sewerage, and waste management sector are poised for a 7.3 percent increase, showcasing a diverse range of outcomes across the economic landscape. The NSO’s detailed analysis provides insights into the multifaceted nature of the economic trends observed in the first quarter of the current fiscal year.