A Study on Tourists Arrival in Nepal by Age Group (1993–2023)

September 19, 2025 | Investopaper

This study analyzes tourist arrival in Nepal from 1993 to 2023, focusing on age-based segmentation. The dataset reveals a general upward trend in tourism until 2019, interrupted by significant disruptions, notably the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021, which caused an 80.8% drop from 2019 levels. Post-pandemic recovery is evident, with 2023 arrivals reaching 84.8% of 2019 peaks.

The 31-45 age group consistently dominates, comprising about 30.4% of arrivals on average, while the 60+ group shows the highest volatility.

Introduction

Background

Nepal’s tourism sector is a vital economic driver, attracting visitors for its natural beauty, cultural heritage, and adventure opportunities. This analysis examines annual tourist arrivals from 1993 to 2023, segmented by age groups: 0-15, 16-30, 31-45, 46-60, and 60+. The data captures long-term trends, growth patterns, and impacts from external shocks such as political instability, natural disasters, and the global pandemic.

Data Source

The dataset includes 31 years of annual figures, with total arrivals and age breakdowns. It is sourced from ‘Nepal Tourism Board’.

Data Overview

The dataset comprises 31 observations (one per year from 1993 to 2023). Key summary statistics for total arrivals and age groups are as follows:

Variable	Min	1st Quartile	Median	Mean	3rd Quartile	Max	Standard Deviation
Year	1993	2000	2008	2008	2016	2023	N/A
Total	150,962	369,397	491,504	555,399	744,609	1,197,191	N/A
Age 0-15	9,768	19,856	30,967	33,270	41,869	84,891	17,161
Age 16-30	30,713	93,436	120,395	128,259	163,021	269,648	57,574
Age 31-45	64,164	115,993	150,171	172,125	215,328	383,155	81,119
Age 46-60	35,351	91,686	121,190	138,531	180,783	305,651	71,424
Age 60+	6,036	41,221	60,531	73,711	94,696	176,872	45,375

Descriptive Statistics

The following table summarizes key metrics for each age group, including Coefficient of Variation (CV) to measure relative volatility:

Age Group	Mean	Median	SD	Min	Max	CV
0-15	33,270	30,967	17,161	9,768	84,891	0.516
16-30	128,259	120,395	57,574	30,713	269,648	0.449
31-45	172,125	150,171	81,119	64,164	383,155	0.471
46-60	138,531	121,190	71,424	35,351	305,651	0.516
60+	73,711	60,531	45,375	6,036	176,872	0.616

The 31-45 group has the highest mean and median, indicating it as the core demographic. The 60+ group exhibits the highest CV (0.616), suggesting greater sensitivity to external factors. Younger groups (0-15 and 16-30) show lower absolute numbers but moderate volatility.

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Trends and Visualizations

Overall Tourism Trend

Total arrivals grew from 293,567 in 1993 to a pre-COVID peak of 1,197,191 in 2019, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.5%. The data reveals steady increases until 2019, followed by a sharp decline to 230,085 in 2020 (-80.8%) and 150,962 in 2021 (-34.4%). Recovery accelerated in 2022 (614,869, +307.3%) and 2023 (1,014,882, +65.1%).

Age Group Composition

Stacked Area Chart: Middle-aged groups (31-45 and 46-60) form the bulk, expanding proportionally over time. Youth (16-30) shows steady growth, while seniors (60+) and children (0-15) remain smaller but volatile.

Percentage Trends: Proportions stabilized post-2010, with 31-45 consistently ~30-35%. The 60+ share increased from ~10% in the 1990s to ~15% by 2019, indicating aging traveler trends.

Box Plots: The 31-45 group has the widest interquartile range, with outliers in high-growth years. The 60+ group shows the most outliers, aligning with high CV.