Tourist Arrivals to Nepal by Nationalities (2006–2024): An Analytical Study
August 8, 2025 | Investopaper
1. Introduction
Tourism is a vital component of Nepal’s economy, contributing significantly to GDP and employment. This study provides a detailed analysis of tourist arrivals to Nepal from 2006 to 2024, based on data from 18 key source countries. The analysis examines trends, dominant source markets, regional contributions, market volatility, and the impact of major disruptions, including the 2015 earthquake and the COVID-19 pandemic. Key findings reveal a robust recovery in 2024, reaching 95.9% of the 2019 peak of 1,197,191 tourists, driven primarily by South Asian markets, particularly India. However, challenges such as market concentration and varying recovery rates across countries highlight the need for strategic diversification and resilience planning.
2. Data Overview
— Countries Analyzed: 18
— Time Period: 2006–2024
— Total Data Points: 298
— Data Source: Ministry of Culture, Tourism and Civil Aviation
The dataset was transformed for temporal and market-specific analyses, with missing values excluded to ensure accuracy. Total annual arrivals were extracted for trend analysis, and regional categorizations were applied to assess geographic contributions.
3. Trends Analysis
Overall Tourism Trends
The analysis reveals three distinct phases in Nepal’s tourism development during the study period:
Pre-Earthquake Growth (2007-2014)
— Average annual growth rate: 10.24%
— Steady expansion from 383,926 (2006) to 797,616 (2013) tourists
Recovery and Peak Period (2016-2019)
— Accelerated growth rate: 13.03% annually
— Recovery from 2015 earthquake impact (749,731 tourists)
— Achievement of historical peak in 2019
COVID-19 Impact and Recovery (2020-2024)
— Dramatic decline: 230,085 tourists in 2020 (80.8% drop from 2019)
— Gradual recovery with 2024 approaching pre-pandemic levels
Critical Events Impact
Two major disruptions significantly affected tourism flows:
2015 Earthquake: Caused a 37% decline in tourist arrivals
COVID-19 Pandemic: Led to an 81% reduction in 2020, with 2021 marking the lowest point (150,962 tourists)
The overall trend is depicted in a line plot (Figure 1) with a smoothing curve, highlighting notable declines in 2015 (earthquake) and 2020–2021 (COVID-19).
Figure 1: Total Tourist Arrivals in Nepal (2006-2024) 
Key Insights From Figure 1:
— Tourism grew steadily before the 2015 earthquake, with a temporary decline followed by robust recovery until 2019.
— The COVID-19 pandemic caused a dramatic drop, with 2021 arrivals at just 12.6% of 2019 levels.
— Post-COVID recovery has been strong, with 2024 approaching pre-pandemic levels.
4. Top Source Markets Analysis
Dominant Markets
The top 10 source markets from 2006 to 2024, based on total tourist arrivals, are:
| Rank | Country | Total Tourists | Market Share |
| 1 | India | 2,879,597 | 27% |
| 2 | China | 1,325,036 | 12.4% |
| 3 | USA | 1,037,378 | 9.7% |
| 4 | UK | 909,506 | 8.5% |
| 5 | Sri Lanka | 739,115 | 6.9% |
| 6 | Australia | 605,149 | 5.7% |
| 7 | Germany | 416,443 | 3.9% |
| 8 | Japan | 402,016 | 3.8% |
| 9 | France | 397,998 | 3.7% |
| 10 | Bangladesh | 284,472 | 2.7% |
India accounts for 27% of total arrivals, followed by China (12.4%) and the USA (9.7%). The top three markets collectively represent 49.2% of all tourists.
A bar plot (Figure 2) illustrates the dominance of these markets, with India significantly outpacing others.
Figure 2: Top 10 Countries With Highest Tourist Arrivals in Nepal
Market Share Evolution (2019 vs. 2024)
Market share analysis for the top 10 countries in 2019 and 2024 reveals:
|
Country |
Share 2019 (%) |
Share 2024 (%) |
Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
|
India |
31.91 | 40.38 | +8.47 |
|
USA |
11.70 | 14.13 | +2.43 |
|
China |
21.28 | 12.94 | -8.34 |
|
UK |
7.68 | 6.96 | -0.72 |
|
Bangladesh |
3.25 | 6.21 | +2.96 |
|
Australia |
4.89 | 5.59 | +0.70 |
|
Sri Lanka |
7.01 | 3.91 | -3.11 |
|
Germany |
4.60 | 3.79 | -0.81 |
|
France |
3.85 | 3.19 | -0.66 |
|
Japan |
3.83 | 2.90 | -0.93 |
Key Shifts:
— India’s market share increased significantly, reinforcing its dominance.
— China’s share declined notably, reflecting slower recovery.
— Bangladesh and the USA gained share, indicating strong post-COVID growth.
A line plot (Figure 3) tracks market share evolution from 2015 to 2024 for the top 10 markets.
Figure 3: Evolution of Market Share of Different Nationalities
5. Regional Analysis
Countries were categorized into five regions: South Asia, East/Southeast Asia, Europe, North America, and Oceania. Key findings for 2024 include:
|
Region |
Total Tourists (2024) |
Market Share (%) |
|---|---|---|
|
South Asia |
410,286 | 43.93 |
|
East/SE Asia |
202,976 | 21.73 |
|
Europe |
149,513 | 16.01 |
|
North America |
127,290 | 13.63 |
|
Oceania |
43,978 | 4.71 |
Driven by India, South Asia accounts for nearly half of 2024 arrivals. European markets show consistent growth and stability, contributing 16% of arrivals.
A stacked area chart (Figure 4) illustrates regional contributions over time, with South Asia’s prominence growing, particularly post-2020.
Figure 4: Tourist Arrivals by Region
6. Volatility and Resilience Analysis
Market Volatility
The coefficient of variation (CV) measures market stability, with lower values indicating more consistent arrivals:
| Country | Market CV (%) | Stability Rating |
| France | 37.82 | Most Stable |
| Japan | 40.89 | Very Stable |
| Germany | 41.83 | Very Stable |
| Sri Lanka | 50.77 | Moderate |
| Bangladesh | 51.25 | Moderate |
| India | 52.58 | Moderate |
| USA | 53.2 | Moderate |
| China | 70.22 | Volatile |
| UK | 84.86 | Highly Volatile |
| Australia | 135.07 | Most Volatile |
France, Japan, and Germany exhibit the lowest volatility, suggesting reliable tourist flows. Australia and the UK show higher variability, potentially due to sensitivity to external shocks.
COVID-19 Impact and Recovery
The COVID-19 pandemic caused significant declines in 2020 and 2021, with varying recovery rates by 2024:
|
Country |
Decline 2020 (%) |
Decline 2021 (%) |
Recovery 2024 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Bangladesh |
-81.0 | -80.5 | 189.0 |
|
India |
-84.1 | -74.6 | 125.0 |
|
USA |
-80.9 | -75.5 | 119.3 |
|
Australia |
-82.6 | -93.6 | 112.8 |
|
UK |
-80.8 | -85.8 | 89.6 |
|
France |
-85.2 | -90.8 | 82.0 |
|
Germany |
-83.9 | -92.0 | 81.3 |
|
Japan |
-81.7 | -97.4 | 74.8 |
|
China |
-88.6 | -96.3 | 60.1 |
|
Sri Lanka |
-76.1 | -99.2 | 55.0 |
Fastest Recovery: Bangladesh (189% of 2019 levels), followed by India (125%) and the USA (119.3%).
Slowest Recovery: Sri Lanka (55%) and China (60.1%).
A grouped bar plot (Figure 5) compares declines and recovery rates, with a dashed line at 100% to indicate full recovery.
Figure 5: Covid-19 Impact and Recovery
7. Recent Growth Momentum (2022–2024)
Recent growth rates highlight markets with strong recovery momentum:
|
Country |
Growth 2022–2023 (%) |
Growth 2023–2024 (%) |
Avg. Recent Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
|
China |
534.2 | 67.3 | 300.8 |
|
Sri Lanka |
374.4 | 40.7 | 207.6 |
|
Japan |
188.1 | 38.8 | 113.5 |
|
Bangladesh |
43.7 | 33.9 | 38.8 |
|
Germany |
52.1 | 10.4 | 31.3 |
|
Australia |
44.3 | 13.4 | 28.8 |
|
India |
52.8 | -0.7 | 26.1 |
|
France |
36.8 | 8.4 | 22.6 |
|
USA |
30.2 | 10.8 | 20.5 |
|
UK |
17.2 | 3.6 | 10.4 |
High Momentum: China and Sri Lanka show exceptional growth, particularly in 2022–2023, though China’s growth slowed in 2024.
Stable Growth: Bangladesh, Germany, and Australia maintain consistent post-COVID growth.
8. Key Findings
Peak Performance: Nepal achieved record tourism in 2019 with 1,197,191 visitors
Recovery Progress: By 2024, tourism reached 95.9% of pre-pandemic levels (1,147,548 visitors)
Market Concentration: India dominates with 27% total market share, while top three markets (India, China, USA) account for 49.2% of all tourists
Regional Balance: South Asia leads with 43.9% market share, followed by East/Southeast Asia (21.7%) and Europe (16.0%).
Post COVID-19 Recovery: Bangladesh achieved the fastest recovery (189% of 2019 levels). Sri Lanka and China lag, recovering to only 55% and 60.1% of 2019 levels, respectively.
9. Conclusion
Nepal’s tourism sector has demonstrated remarkable resilience, recovering to 95.9% of pre-COVID levels by 2024. While India remains the cornerstone of tourist arrivals, opportunities exist to diversify into stable and high-value markets like Europe and North America. By addressing market volatility and tailoring strategies to underperforming regions, Nepal can enhance its tourism sector’s sustainability and growth. The dominance of regional markets provides stability but also creates concentration risk that requires careful management. Future growth requires continued focus on market diversification, product development, and infrastructure enhancement to position Nepal as a premier global tourism destination.
Recommended:
Comprehensive Analysis of Tourist Arrivals and Stay Patterns in Nepal (1964-2024)
A Study on Foreign Exchange Earnings from Tourism in Nepal (1974/75 to 2023/24)
